Gamblers are some of the most superstitious people on earth. Sometimes, even just mentioning the word ‘7’ on a craps table can cause some people to stare at you angrily. Some people even bring little trinkets to the casino because they believe that doing so would attract luck. The manner of believing in superstition differs mostly from person to person – but one thing is usually common among most gamblers: belief in the gambler’s fallacy.

About the Gambler’s Fallacy

The gambler’s fallacy refers to players’ belief that the past somehow influences future events in a casino game of chance. It’s easiest, perhaps, to explain by form of an example. Say you were playing roulette and the ball had just landed on the black for five times in a row. You start to think that it can’t possibly land on black again on the next turn, so you decide to bet a large amount on red. Then the ball does the unthinkable and lands on black yet again then you commence a silent episode of cursing the fates for their propensity for irony.

The thing is, past events in gambling have zero influence over the coming events. Ask any mathematician or grade school student and he’ll probably explain to you about probability. It’s really simple. Red has an equal amount of occurring after that red streak as black does. It could go either way.

It’s called a Fallacy for a Reason

The reason why so many people believe in the gambler’s fallacy despite convincing mathematical proof is because they’re looking at it the wrong way. When people see eight reds occur in roulette, they usually think that the probability of getting 9 reds in a row is really low. But the truth is, looking at things from such a perspective would be looking at things the wrong way. Take each spin independently and you get a 50/50 probability of red occurring each time. Black also has a 50/50 probability of occurring.

As such, if you ever see a betting system that has a shade of the Gambler’s fallacy, don’t bother to try it. Betting systems are great in the short term, but then so is flat betting. When all is said and done, there is no betting system that will really allow you to beat the house edge, so don’t count on anyone who is trying to tell you otherwise.

Do away with such fallacious beliefs and just gamble for fun. It’s what casinos are for, after all.